Concerns about a poor monsoon due to the developing El Nino in the Pacific Ocean have not materialized yet. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted normal rainfall for July, following decent rainfall in June. The late surge in rainfall made up for the initial deficiency in the first half of June.
The IMD announced on Friday that July rainfall is expected to be normal, possibly even above normal. Normal rainfall falls between 94 and 106 percent of the long-term average. The IMD’s forecast indicates that July rainfall will likely fall between 100 and 106 percent.
The IMD’s outlook suggests that July rainfall in India may not be affected by the developing El Nino as feared. El Nino, which causes the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean to warm abnormally, can impact global weather patterns and suppress India’s monsoon rainfall.
IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra explained that while surface waters in the relevant region of the eastern Pacific Ocean have warmed by about 1 degree Celsius, this warming is recent. The Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) must show a warming of at least 0.5 degrees Celsius for three consecutive months to indicate El Nino. The three-month average was below 0.5 degrees Celsius in June, suggesting no El Nino effect. However, the three-month average is expected to exceed 0.5 degrees Celsius in July, indicating a mild El Nino. Despite this, IMD’s forecast predicts normal rainfall in July for India.
This forecast implies that the first half of the monsoon season is likely to be normal, easing concerns about delayed crop sowing. Heavy rainfall in the past two weeks has enabled sowing in most parts of the country, with the total sown area already surpassing last year’s figures for the same period.
Sowing has been particularly brisk for crops like bajra, moong, and groundnut, thanks to timely cyclone-induced rainfall in Rajasthan and Gujarat. Sowing is expected to accelerate for other kharif crops in the next two weeks as monsoon rains cover the entire country.
In June, IMD had predicted an 8 percent rainfall deficiency, which ended up at 10 percent, close to the forecast. Rainfall distribution was uneven, with Kerala and Karnataka experiencing significant deficits. Only northwest India received above-normal rainfall. The monsoon is expected to remain active throughout July in different parts of the country.
IMD also provided statistical evidence for good rainfall in July. Since 1950, in 25 years with below-normal June rainfall, 16 had normal July rainfall, including El Nino years. The most recent example was in 2019, when June had a 31 percent deficit, but July saw 106 percent rainfall.
